Egypt - US Relations in 2016
The moments of coherence in US policy towards Egypt have been sparse, at best. The strongman Mubarak enjoyed full US support, until he apparently lost it as the US attempted to position itself as an agent of change in the region. The democratic election to follow showcased several uninspiring candidates, and the Muslim Brotherhood's fallback choice narrowly won against the former prime minister from the regime Egypt had just overthrown. Paralyzed by indecision, US State Department officials eschewed groups such as the National Salvation Front, which stated their demand for liberal democracy clearly, in an attempt to ingratiate itself with the incoming government. Morsi's decree of power, which gave him authority to operate without judicial oversight and consolidate more power than Mubarak ever had, were met with bland responses from the US State Department: "The decisions and declarations announced on November 22nd raise concerns for many Egyptians and for the international community." In fact, the US went ahead with weapon transfers of F-16 fighter aircraft, and was on track to transfer two hundred M1A1 Abrams tanks before Morsi's overthrow (it is puzzling as to the US objective of providing the Muslim Brotherhood tanks, which have little value in combating Egypt's low-level insurgency - their most effective role would be in the de-militarized Sinai against Israel, which critics were quick to point out). Then, Egyptian politics took another turn, as Morsi's general incompetence in running the country led to an economic collapse, energy price spikes, food shortages and authoritarian heavy-handedness. Seventeen million Egyptians took to the streets and the military took charge; more chaos, more unrest, another round of presidential elections and a leadership changeover. The only constant has been US vacillation on the sidelines.
Egypt's new president, Abdul Fatah al-Sisi, was Morsi's head of the armed forces. He has consolidated power and largely crushed the Muslim Brotherhood opposition with support from both Salafis and liberals. He has set the framework for much needed business and investment opportunities to the international community, and inspired confidence by hiring the western consultant Lazard to rebuild Egyptian institutions degraded by mismanagement. To the north, he is taking action against the myriad groups that had operated with impunity in the Sinai under Morsi, such as ansar bayt al-maqdis (which has pledged loyalty to ISIS), regional militants and al-Qaeda offshoots. He has isolated Hamas by destroying the vast smuggling tunnels and quietly aligned itself with Israel. To the south, he has begun to smooth the trust deficit with Ethiopia by visiting the country and rebuilding stagnant negotiations over water sharing issues. In recent months, Libya has disintegrated into a fully failed state, opening an entire front of Egypt to Islamic State and other militant groups. Egypt needs a strong leader more than ever, and it remains to be seen whether al-Sisi will be up to the task. But the start is promising.
The general formula for leadership in important foreign policy matters is to sit down with the most knowledgeable people on the subject, engage in heated debate while viewing the issue from myriad perspectives, and then agree to the final decision made by the president. Once that decision is made, follow through. Explain the reasoning behind the decision and how it affects further relations. It will never be perfect, and it might not work. Yet at least everyone knows where you stand. America has floundered in their leadership towards Egypt, angering everyone, pleasing no one, while simultaneously eroding its own objectives in the region. Egypt's current government was outraged at the recent summit at the State Department, in which former members of Morsi's regime were invited to engage in private dialogue with the State Department and allowed a photo-op in front of the official State Department seal flashing Brotherhood symbols. Egypt's military, which retaliated with strikes on munition stores and training camps in the Libyan city of Derna in response to the beheading of twenty-one Christian Copts by ISIS militants, received negligently ambiguous statements from State Department Spokesman Jen Psaki: "We are neither condemning nor condoning" these Egyptian strikes. Liberal and Muslim Brotherhood groups complain about US failure to address the human rights situation in Egypt, which Amnesty International considers as oppressive as it was under Morsi or Mubarak. And the never-ending conspiracy theories about US and Israeli creation of ISIS in order to undermine the Middle East structure abound with renewed enthusiasm.
There are tough choices to be made in foreign policy - some of the choices made will undoubtedly be the wrong one. But that is what politicians, diplomats, negotiators and foreign policy experts agree to undertake when they accept their position. Declare the military's takeover from Morsi a coup, but acknowledge the role of both Morsi's incompetence and the Tamarod youth movement that brought millions to the street. Declare the human rights environment of Egypt unacceptable, and actively work to balance the injustice. Acknowledge the key role that Egypt will play in the region, and give the military the necessary tools to fight against ISIS, which poses a great threat to the region. Build business and social contacts, strengthen ties and support the liberal, democratic elements of Egypt. Maintaining contact with Muslim Brotherhood entities is fine, but they have their own agenda, which must not undercut American objectives. America must again become an engaged leader in the region, or risk a total loss of influence.